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A report in The New York Times says that this week, aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, America's highest ranking military officers met Pakistan's military chief. Among those who are reported to have been involved are General David Petraeus and Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and they and the Pakistanis discussed ways to solve the growing problem of enemy infiltration from Pakistan to Afghanistan.
Among most observers who study military affairs, there has been general agreement that the foray into Iraq has siphoned valuable military resources from the battle against militants in Afghanistan, and both candidates for president have been quite vocal about the need to redress the problem. But the distraction of Iraq is only part---actually only a small part---of the problem with the campaign in Afghanistan. By far a bigger difficulty is Pakistan.
Carved from British colonial lands when India became independent, Pakistan has been fractious and violent, and its relationships with neighbors have been difficult. Complicating the situation is Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons and its history of exporting nuclear technology to enemies of the United States. In addition, Pakistan has been ineffectual in its sporadic battle against militant tribesmen in the area bordering Afghanistan, and there are many credible reports that members of Pakistan's army, police and intelligence apparatus are in league with Muslim extremists.
Whatever else one can say about General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's erstwhile president---and he can be cadtigated fairly for his many mistakes---one thing is certain: he tried to be as good an ally as he could in the war on terror. He walked a very narrow lane between assisting the United States and mollifying the diverse elements in Pakistan that preferred his death to his rule. In the end, he couldn't maintain the charade, and potential danger and turmoil remain in the wake of his departure.
Because he was never fully in control of the armed forces, he was ineffective in getting his military to move decisively against the militants on the western border, and I have seen enemy units blithely spending the winter in the hills abutting Afghanistan's Paktia and Paktika provinces, only to filter back into Afghanistan in the spring. These days, al Qaeda and Taliban presence is quite large, and they maintain bases and training complexes inside Pakistan, from which they launch regular attacks into Afghanistan.
Look for some conventional American forces to redeploy from Iraq to Afghanistan, and for more special operations forces to go there as well. Indeed, there was an announcement this week that some Marines were leaving Iraq because their area of Anbar Province is quiet. Before long, some of them are likely to be in Kandahar or nearby areas.
If the report about the high-level meeting is true, it is an encouraging sign that the American military establishment is taking seriously the growing threat in Afghanistan. And the presence of the Pakistani command brightens the picture considerably. But the leading candidate to replace Musharraf is on record in favor of leaving the militants unmolested. And has has often been the case in its history, Pakistan is in the midst of political turmoil, and only constant pressure by the United States and its NATO allies---and a great deal of luck---will keep the Pakistanis' eye on the ball.
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Thanks. As much as an extremist as I am---and as we all tend to be on some subjects, especially as we get older---I find it useful to cut to basics, something we all learned as brand new soldiers.
