Obama's Challenges, Part 1

The new president will have plenty on his plate, and the rotten state of the economy is only one of the challenges that the next administration will face. Not waiting for January 20 to wade into the water, Obama has already been vociferous about the need for an economic stimulus package, and he is establishing his territory early by declaring that the primary responsibility is the Congress's, where it has always been.

But in the realm of national security, the Constitution gives the president a bit more authority, and the variety of problems that beset us in the international arena requires that he think clearly about how to use it.

Iraq: In his campaign promises, Obama committed himself to withdrawing quickly, and there are few who want to see an American presence there for an extended period---including the military establishment---but the practical reality is more complicated. Logistically, a rapid withdrawal will be very difficult, and our ability to move very large numbers of troops and their equipment is limited. Furthermore, Obama has himself stated the need to keep advisors and some logistical support in Iraq to prevent a meltdown, and so there is the security of remaining forces to consider. I have been part of a detachment left in contact, and I can report that the environment is harrowing and survival a matter of pure luck. The good news is that a status-of-forces agreement is nearing completion, and that will help, but we need to be prepared to accept an unpleasant outcome in Iraq.

Iran: Iran seems monolithic to some inside this administration, but it is not. President Bush has made much of President Achmedinejad's bellicosity, but he is a figurehead and enjoys some influence largely because we give him notoriety he does not deserve. Iran's parliament has much it doesn't like about the man or his policies, and he certainly will be replaced in time. But our current strategy of hoping for the moderates inside Iran to revolt, while excoriating the place publicly, will bear no fruit. To be successful in keeping Iran from becoming a bigger threat, the Obama administration will certainly have to talk with the government there, but it will be well advised to do so quietly. The objective is to prevent Iran's further development of nuclear weapons and to keep the leaders' ambitions safely inside the country's borders, and that will not be accomplished by loudly proclaiming his diplomatic intentions. Public success is best accomplished in private.

Afghanistan: Obama will get no complaint from military leaders if he intends to make a concerted effort to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda and to empower local Afghans. To accomplish this will entail not merely moving conventional troops there; the mission will yield only to the use of Special Forces and mobile training teams, significant intelligence collection and processing units, civil affairs and economic assistance, special operations forces, and other unconventional assets. The trouble is that we do not have sufficient resources of these types on active duty and, furthermore, have so far demonstrated the capacity to mobilize all instruments of foreign policy, not just the overburdened military establishment, to achieve success in an integrated way. Doing this will be a major test of Obama's and, especially, Rahm Emmanuel's leadership inside the Executive Branch.

Pakistan: This country poses what most observers view as the single biggest security challenge in the region. It is politically fragmented, inexpertly led and incapable of maintaining security in its western regions. Terrorists recruit, train and launch attacks from there, and it is the primary source of enemy troops now operating in Afghanistan. It has a history of political assassination, military coups and instability---and it has nuclear weapons. Pakistan is potentially a perfect storm.

Next week, barring something genuinely extraordinary on which to comment, we'll discuss a few other areas that will challenge the Obama presidency.