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In a few days, Brack Obama will announce his national security team, but the media are certain whose these people will be. Erstwhile campaign opponent Hillary Clinton will be appointed to serve as the Secretary of State, and this is quite startling to some observers. If she harbors any aspirations to higher national office (again), staying in the Senate at the forefront of the inevitable legislative battles would make a great deal of sense. Instead, running the unwieldy and marginally effective bureaucracy that is the Department of State will effectively take her off the table. Smart move. As the oft-repeated axiom advises, "Keep your friends close---but your enemies closer."
Opting to retain Defense Secretary Gates for is also smart. Especially in contrast to his predecessor, Gates is respected by both the military leadership and the Congress, and it is imperative that he continue the objectives he has been pursuing since he took office. Chief among these are increases in the Army and Marine Corps; control of excesses in procurement programs; the rapidly changing mission in Iraq; and the prosecution of the war on terrorists in Afghanistan and the related problem of enemy sanctuary in Pakistan. No matter who takes the reins from him, keeping Gates on the job for now is encouraging news.
And the most likely person to head Obama's National Security Council is retired Marine General James Jones, former Commandant of the Corps. About 25 years ago, he was a colonel and a student at the National War College in Washington, DC, and I was a member of the faculty. Jones, a combat Marine of distinction, proved to be brilliant and perceptive in analyzing complex national security problems and their solutions, and he carried about him the aura of competence, confidence and success. It also didn't hurt that if anybody looks like a Marine general officer, it is Jones: an imposing 6'6" and as trim at age 65 than are most people at 25. He would be a splendid Secretary of State, too, but that's already taken---for now.
As if this team will not have enough on its plate, the terrorist attack in Mumbai should convince its members that national security professionals can never blink. This is hardly the first significant attack on the city, and the mess represents a very large intelligence failure there. A startlingly similar attack was launched about 15 years ago, and there have been quite a few other assaults since then. There will be plenty of blame to go around, but one thing is certain: if a nation is as preoccupied with the threat from Muslim extremists as India says it is, then it is difficult to envision how India could have been so blindsided by this attack. Good intelligence is their---and our---first line of defense.
The Indian media are full of suggestions that Pakistan is to blame, but no matter what the truth, this sad event is going to add fuel to the already roaring fire of enmity between India and Pakistan, both of whom come fully equipped to annihilate each other. Look for civil unrest in India, where people will vent anger and frustration at their government's inability to protect them, and if the past in any predictor, sectarian violence and vigilantism are likely, it is sad to say. None of this is good for the United States, whose new national security team should be staying awake at night right now, organizing how it will use its good offices to prevent a bigger mess.
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Thanks. As much as an extremist as I am---and as we all tend to be on some subjects, especially as we get older---I find it useful to cut to basics, something we all learned as brand new soldiers.
