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Evidently, the president plans to withdraw American combat forces from Iraq by the end of next year, and that calculates to be only three months later than his campaign promise to be out within 16 months of inauguration. But the specifics of the plan are open to speculation, and the most likely event---that there will not be a complete withdrawal---has fueled heated comment, most notably from Obama's own allies.
The truth is that, no matter how fast American forces are withdrawn, the White House understands and agrees with the concept that a significant American presence will be required in Iraq for some time. Obama has been careful to speak about redeploying "combat forces," whose definition in an unconventional conflict is really only meaningless rhetoric. They are all combat forces, no matter what their military occupational specialty. It is the mission that is important.
The Bush administration began to reduce slightly the American footprint in Iraq some time ago, as it became clear that we could no longer sustain the human, financial and national security cost of the deployment, and as we began to make operational headway. The American mission shifted from destroying the insurgency to training the Iraqis to destroy the insurgency, and there has been remarkable success in accomplishing it.
Advice to the president from his national security team has included the sobering reality that for some time to come Iraqis will require training and both tactical and logistical support, and that it will take tens of thousands of Americans to provide it.
Many public and published comments that have addressed this have been laughably uninformed. One averred that the remaining Americans would not be involved in combat and that they would be provided only with sidearms. Neither is correct.
Among the more pathetic observations was that from Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who stated that she thought the proper residual number of Americans in Iraq was 20,000. Her lack of military bona fides notwithstanding (ostensibly she can hire staffers who have some knowledge), a casual approach that takes no notice of the demands of the mission reveals a staggering ignorance of the subject---and one that would be dangerous if President Obama were not as politically strong as he is at the moment.
Whatever is the commitment that we will make in Iraq, it is safe to conclude that it will not end completely in 18 months. Nor will it terminate abruptly, unless the Iraqi government fails catastrophically and the security situation becomes so untenable that a precipitous withdrawal becomes the best course of action. But whether the right number of Americans in Iraq is 50,000 or not, the size of the force will be dictated by the mission, not the other way around. Defense officials who thought otherwise left office three years ago and would find some measure of ironic amusement that among those who shared their bankrupt national security calculus was Nancy Pelosi.
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Thanks. As much as an extremist as I am---and as we all tend to be on some subjects, especially as we get older---I find it useful to cut to basics, something we all learned as brand new soldiers.
