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Almost lost in the din of the Michael Jackson noise has been a number of developments of more than passing importance.
--American casualties in Afghanistan have begun to increase.
--China's long-term problem with minorities again erupted, as nearly 200 ethnic Uigurs---Muslims in China's far northwest---died in clashes with police and with ethnic Han Chinese.
--North Korea continued to test its steadily improving weapons delivery capability, firing more than ten missiles of varying ranges and ignoring the latest UN Security Council resolution.
--A coup in Honduras hoisted American politics with its own petard, as our penchant for extolling the rule of law forced us into the uncomfortable position of supporting a Chavez-style leader who was ousted because he attempted to usurp authority.
--And Obama met Medvedev.
About the last event there was a bit of media attention--some of it hyperbolic but none of it as hysterical as the MJ story--and it is important and thus worthwhile to put it into perspective.
The press conference was engineered by both Americans and Russians to reflect a substantial thaw in a relationship that has for some time been strained by paranoia, mistrust and bungled diplomacy. That the Bush administration made a hash of dealing with Moscow is indisputable, and we should be pleased with any improvement in relations. But this is the first and the least substantial step, and we should be careful not to infuse tentative progress with euphoria: history teaches us that high expectations are for chumps.
First, there was laudable substance and import in the announcement that each year Russia will permit 4,500 American flights to transit its airspace en route to Afghanistan. The arrangement is not ironclad and is always subject to recission and restriction, but it is welcome assistance to a burgeoning American effort to destroy the Taliban. While it is only about 15 sorties per day---almost all of it logistical support and only a fraction of what we need---this concession by the Russians is a big deal.
Second, the public announcement that our two countries will begin talking about reducing our nuclear arsenals is only that: we intend to begin talking about talking about it. Both the United States and Russia have a vested interest in reducing nuclear stockpiles, at least partially because they cost plenty to maintain. But both countries have had plans to eliminate some of the weapons anyway, because they are aged and need to be withdrawn from service. And the target is a reduction of one-third of the number of weapons, not necessarily one-third of the total megatonnage---what is called "throw weight." This will leave plenty of throw weight remaining, although there are many who assert that we can never have enough of the stuff because deterrence requires us to possess overwhelming and indisputably survivable retaliatory power. Still a reduction is a reduction, but we must not equate the announcement of possible talks with mutual nuclear disarmament.
Nobody, particularly Russia, gives anything away for free, and the Kremlin expects something in return for the airspace. That something is the American plan for a ballistic missile shield in Europe. The Russians never believed that the anti-missile system was to protect everybody, including the Russians, from weapons fired from Iran, and they thought that it was also---or even primarily---to protect Europe from Russia. Whether the shield works or not matters little to Medvedev; he just don't want the United States growing roots in areas, like eastern Europe, where the USSR previously held suzerainty.
Better relations are almost always preferable, and we need Russia's support if, for example, we are serious about shutting down the expansionaist aims of Iran. But we should be mindful of two things:
--Public pacts are possible only if they are structured in private. So our politicians should keep their mouths shut until they have something substantive and conclusive to announce. Discussing details in public makes it more difficult to agree about them in private.
--Have expectations that are realistic. To this end, never forget the observation of Felix Rohaytn, who when he was at Lazard Freres, advised sagely, "Never leave a good meeting thinking you have a deal."
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Thanks. As much as an extremist as I am---and as we all tend to be on some subjects, especially as we get older---I find it useful to cut to basics, something we all learned as brand new soldiers.
